Can Entrepreneurs Overcome the Black Swan?!
By Heba Essam
Before the discovery of Australia, the world assumed that all swans were white, and this was a firm belief based on evidence, but ornithologists were taken aback when black swans were discovered. As writer Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan: Implications of Unexpected Events, puts it: the issue here is that it indicates the extent of the fragility of our perceptions and the things we take for granted.
What Is a “Black Swan” Event?
A “black swan” event has three basic characteristics: first, it is sudden and accidental, falling outside the scope of expectations; second, it involves drastic consequences; and third, despite being an accident, we weave interpretations of it in order to make it perceptible and predictable.
The 2020 Black Swan
Some may argue that the previously mentioned characteristics are related to the world after the Corona pandemic or to the event itself, claiming that many theories have predicted the emergence of global epidemics. Yes, the world has changed, but the perplexing scene we have witnessed thus far, in which all of the world’s countries have fallen, suggests that the world did not anticipate such events in the near future but instead dealt with them as imagined events rather than as a possible reality.
As a result, discussing post-Corona economies is akin to scribbling the first lines on a blank sheet of paper, rather than a shift in some imaginations or measurements, as some argue.
This is where we’ve all ended up, especially small business owners. Everyone would tell you that you need a future plan to deal with events and predict the unexpected, but the problem is that no matter how hard we try, we will not be able to predict events as they happen, and this is where the legitimate concern of each entrepreneur or owner of projects or startup companies begins.
Everyone is perplexed, especially since speculation about the post-pandemic world is still in its early stages, and everyone must prepare. Because there is always a lag between events and their consequences, we are now waiting for the storm.
Can We Prevail?!
The good news is that things do not have to get this bad. With many studies closely following the reasons for startup company failure and ways to address those reasons and come up with new solutions and operating systems, the first observations were that startups cannot follow the operating systems and management that major companies and economic institutions follow, and here may lie the magic solution for entrepreneurs.
Although these massive institutions have assets and financial reserves, it is the analysis of the primary elements of companies’ operating systems that allows them to withstand such violent global changes more effectively. We may be surprised by the number of opportunities that the current challenges may present to this type of companies, the most important of which is the ability of emerging companies to quickly transform into various other services and products that may help fill the many gaps in the current economic system, particularly in the fields of health and distance education, in addition to reducing costs. These companies can deal efficiently within the limits of what is available without incurring huge losses, allowing them to exit the crisis.
Furthermore, there is now an opportunity for digital change and digital entrepreneurship to define new boundaries for our physical world. The impending decisive change provides hope for a quick and flexible response to the challenges and problems.
To summarize, the world is always shaped by these unexpected events, and as a result, entrepreneurs must look to new horizons, which necessitate different global and flexible business models that are very quick to notice and deal with changes.